Changing it up a little, this installment focuses on the Washington Wizards and my guest blogger offers up his preview and compares how they stack up with the Raptors. Following his analysis is my own so lets get to it…
When not lobbying for Bosh2010 or Durant2012, Sujoy Paul aka @docfunk can be found hating things you like on Brain On Funk.
Much like the Raptors, the Washington Wizards are a hodgepodge of strangely shaped pieces that construct a playoff team if assembled properly. Unfortunately, Brian Colangelo is better at puzzles than Ernie Grunfeld. Colangelo can take one-dimensional Amir Johnson and Reggie Evans pieces and somehow connect them into a crucial edge. In DC we throw all the pieces into the box, shake vigorously, and hope for the best. Ugh, Andray Blatche at Small Forward. Shake the box again.
While the Raptors are well below .500 in games without Chris Bosh in the last 3 seasons, the Wizards can hardly be considered a professional team without Gilbert Arenas. Subsequently, the success of the Wizards in 2009-10 is going to be dependent on the Gilbert’s ability to remain healthy.
The Raptors went 2-1 against Washington last year but both teams have undergone some radical changes since then (albeit towards different philosophies). Toronto’s addition of DeRozan, Turkoglu, Amir Johnson, and Reggie Evans marks a decisive trend towards specialization. The Wizards traded the Rubio pick for the jack-of-all-trades master-of-none, Mike Miller and the promising (if unspectacular) Randy Foye.
Unlike seasons past, there is no team identity for this Wizards squad. We cannot hang our hats on defense, jump shooting, nor post play. We are not a cast of aging vets nor are we inundated with youth. Our locker room is neither cosmopolitan nor homogeneous. It’s going to take a month to decide on lunch, much less determine a front court rotation.
As a result, the Wizards are a team that is going to be easier to beat earlier in the season. It wont be until December before they can determine an appropriate rotation, the most efficient distribution of minutes, and just how much Gilbert has left in his knees.
However, when the Raps play Washington this season, they may want to give Chris Bosh the day off. Why?
Brendan Haywood. Mike James. Mike Miller, Fabricio Oberto. DeShawn Stevenson.
Those are the $28 million of contracts that come off the books in 2010…
Ever wanted to be Vice President? Talk to me, Chris.
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Last Season Record: 2-1
The Wizards played out the season without the presence of Gilbert Arenas. Strangely enough though, it wasn’t at the guard position but rather the forwards on the Raptors that had their way. Chris Bosh averaged 21 and 11 against a very capable defender in Antawn Jamison as did Shawn Marion in his short stint. Washington struggled majorly from beyond the 3 point line which in turn, never exposed the weakness of the Raptors who had proven to be incapable of playing perimeter defense all season long. With their marquee player lost for the season, the Wizards gave their young players a chance to develop and make their mistakes. Javale McGee, Nick Young, Dominic McGuire and Jarvaris Crittenton are all promising players but the slight edge in experience definitely helped the Raptors come out on the winning end of this series.
Stacking Up
The Bigs: Over the last few years, Antawn Jamison is one of a handful of guys who consistently flirts with producing a 20-10 season. The other guy? Chris Bosh. Unfortunately for Jamison he is now on the wrong side of 30 while Bosh is nearing his prime. The Wizards have some raw potential guys at the C spot backing up veteran Brandon Haywood, but the combination of Bosh and Bargnani should be able to out work them on the offensive end. The Raptors also managed to add a lot of depth on the bench which should keep Bosh and Bargnani fresh on both ends of the floor. Defensively, the focus will be on Jamison as the other Washington players don’t pose much of a threat but if the Raptors get lazy they could see emerging players like McGee and Blatche torch them with athletic moves in the paint.
Edge: Raptors
The Wings: The addition of Hedo Turkoglu to the Raptors roster, finally puts pressure on opposing teams to plan a defensive strategy for the wing position. The Wizards may not have a go to defensive specialist, but they are stacked with athleticism. It is imaginable they will send out Blatche, Caron Butler, Dominic McGuire and Mike Miller to give Hedo some different looks. Hedo may be an all-star but so is Caron Butler. On most nights when Gilbert was out, he along with Antawn Jamison were expected to carry this Wizards team. The Raptors may have to put Antoine Wright on the floor to defend Caron and have Hedo defending a smaller guy.
Edge: Even
The Guards: He’s BAAAACK! Arenas may not have played much in the past 2 years but all reports indicate he is healthy and ready to regain his status as an elite guard in the NBA. Calderon on the other hand boasts his own range of skills. Though Arenas may not agree, Calderon’s ability to distribute the ball while maintaining above average shooting percentages puts him firmly in the upper echelon of guards in the league. The two play different styles but are vital to the success of their team – the one difference is, Arenas can be a game changer. With help from newly acquired Foye, DeShawn Stevenson and Nick Young, who flourished in the absence of Arenas, the guard lineups for the Wizards (if healthy) should be able to outplay any combination’s the Raptors trot out during the games.
Edge: Wizards
Predicted Record: 2-1 (Both teams got stronger but the result should stay the same)
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If the results for your 3 category rating system includes a W for Team 1's Bigs, an Even for the Wings on both squads and a W for Team 2's Guards … then, that should produce an overall edge for Team 2 in your predicted W-L records between these respective teams. On what basis would I make such an observations, you ask?
At its most basic level, basketball is a Guards Game, first and foremost, as they are the players on the court who actually handle the ball most frequently … for both good and bad.
Interesting then that you have the Raptors with the "outcome advantage" over the Wizards in this specific match-up, 2-1.
Thanks for your comments. I guess I should clear up that predicted record is my conclusion not only based on the 3 categories i have used to break down the teams into but also other factors like the bench, road/home games, back-2-back game nights and so forth. The 3 categories are just what I chose to use to break down strengths and weaknesses of each team and how it will come into play when they face off.
The predicted outcome is almost an exercise to see where this team comes out after i finish going through the breakdowns with each team. I hope at the end of all this I will come up with a win loss record prediction that I am happy with and will stick by for the rest of the season.
I suspect you have this one right Nat.
But if Gilbert's knee goes soft, it'll be a really long season for the Wiz again.
And it's a challenge to believe Agent 0 will be as good as 2 seasons ago without seeing him play for a month.
Note: Caron Bulter's scoring against the Magic (Hedo?) was -3.5 ppg, -4.2 rpg, -0.3 apg vs his season averages (which are very good!)
Nice piece.
Flip Saunders is a significant new addition to the Wizards squad. Although he might not be a championship calibre head coach, his record of success in the NBA suggests that Washington, under his guidance, is likely to win this series match-up 2-1. Despite what many Raptors fans might think, at least at this point, the Wizards have more talent on their roster than the Dinos do and should be expected to finish higher in the EC standings this season.
Assuming everyone on the WIz is healthy (like 3 seasons ago) and Miller and Foye fit in well and the Raps 9 new pieces take a while to develop and gel and its very very early. And I forgot, assuming the Wiz's new head coach can integrate his system/ ideas seamlessly or Jay doesn't become a really good head coach, etc….
Gotta love the of season! Looking forward to preseason starting.