With 10 teams to go in the Match Up series, this felt like the perfect time to do this Raptors-Rockets preview. The teams went head to head a few days ago in a pre-season game where the Rockets came out victorious. Many thanks go out to Mark for the guest preview.

Mookie (@ASternWarning) writes for A Stern Warning, a site devoted to all things basketball worldwide. He enjoys long walks on the beach and singing the praises of Greg Oden.

Injury Central is once again the story of the Rockets’ season.

The Houston Rockets’ Big Three from a season ago, Yao Ming, Tracy McGrady and Ron Artest will all be elsewhere when the team suits up for their October 27 matchup against Portland. Artest flew the coop for the Los Angeles Lakers, whilst Yao will be sitting in mothballs once again for the majority of the season, as will McGrady who is scheduled to miss at least November.

Suddenly the Rockets find Australian David Andersen coming in as a likely starting centre, a mid-range jump-shooting 6’11″ big man with a very different look to Yao. Instead of defensive bulldog Artest, Trevor Ariza will be the wingman charged with providing excitement on the break at the small forward position — almost a straight swap with the Lakers. Without McGrady, suddenly the Rockets will be forced to rely on the likes of Brent Barry at shooting guard, a huge step down from the former all-star that is T-Mac.

Who will form the identity of this Rockets team and be the newly-fledged stars to step up? That responsibility likely falls to Aaron Brooks (who exploded onto the scene in last season’s playoffs), Argentinian workhorse power forward Luis Scola and Ariza, with the dregs of Shane Battier’s talent picking up the scraps. This team has proven in recent years that they can be a scrappy team of bit-players that come together to form a team greater than the sum of its parts. Once again, that will likely be the way in which the Rockets win games. Whilst Brooks, Scola and Ariza will take on much of the scoring responsibility, players like Chuck Hayes, Carl Landry and Kyle Lowry will do the little things which push games in favour of the Rockets, as they try to playoff teams.
Will Houston find themselves in the playoffs? In the stacked Western Conference, the answer to that one is in the negative, but they will certainly claim some scalps along the way when their opponents don’t turn up ready for a fight.

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Last Season Record: 1-1
The teams split the series with each winning at home. The Rockets came into Toronto and got blown out by a 12-20 team while playing with a full roster. Good D forced 21 turnovers and kept the Rockets shooting under 35% from the field. Good enough to get the job done. In the second meeting there was no Tracy McGrady but the Rockets were already adjusted to playing without him. 20-10 games from both Scola and Yao were too much for the Raptors to handle even though the Rockets were playing with a short bench. 16 assists from Jose Calderon was the highlight of the game for the Raptors in the loss.

Stacking Up

The Bigs: The loss of Yao Ming for the season greatly changes the look of this Rockets team. The front court is made up of athletic guys who make up for their lack of height with some good basketball IQ. Bosh and Bargnani should have the advantage here offensively. Will proper spacing on the floor the two can run the pick and roll and the pop still leaving room for the guards to cut to the basket with no real shot blocking threat on the floor. The Rockets front court doesn’t seem to be very intimidating on the offensive end. They key for the Raptors will be boxing out. If the Raptor bigs are unable to do so, the Rockets will do most of their damage with 2nd chance points and run outs from a grabbing easy rebounds.
Edge: Raptors

The Wings: The Raptors got lit up by Shane Battier in the pre-season game last week. I did a preview for that game and my only concern was the perimeter. Seems my concern had some validity as the Rockets got 39 points from beyond the arc. Hedo Turkoglu was exposed badly for his lack of commitment on the defensive end. I expect to see more of Antoine Wright who has slowly been building a reputation of a defensive minded player. The wings have to be able to run out on these shooters and force them to put the ball on the floor. Hedo will have a tougher time on the offensive end as well because Ariza and Landry make great use of their athleticism to build an advantage on the defensive end. If McGrady is back to even half strength, I forsee the Raptors struggling mightily from this spot.
Edge: Rockets

The Guards: The wing spot is solid for the Rockets but their guard rotation is pretty thin. Aaron Brooks relies mostly on his speed to get to his spots and Kyle Lowry has yet to show consistency. Jose may not be able to out run either guy but his basketball IQ should give him the edge. Its a pretty simple task for him in this one – keep feeding the ball to Bosh and Bargnani. Teams have picked up that you can’t run under the screen because Jose will torch you but with the Rockets they will have to pick their poison. When the Raptors need some toughness they can bring Jack in who can be a bit more physical against a guy like Lowry. I can’t imagine the Raptors go small ball because they would be playing right into the hands of the Rockets with that approach. Demar and Belinelli should get lots of lanes to take it to the hoop and need to make good on those.
Edge: Raptors

Predicted Record: 1-1 (Road game is the 2nd game of a B2B)

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